An analysis of where Iran has been heading for the last few years…and to some extent, where the U.S may be heading as regards Iran?:
‘The closer Iran gets to acquiring nuclear weapons, the fewer options will be available to stop its progress. At the same time, Iran’s incentives to back down will only decrease as it approaches the nuclear threshold. Given these trends, the United States faces the difficult decision of using military force soon to prevent Iran from going nuclear, or living with a nuclear Iran and the regional fallout’
Some of the logic is inherent in the situation, but I’m still skeptical of the idea (isolationism is strong at the moment) that we should involve our military for years to come and in unforeseen ways (we’re doing so now according to universalist, humanitarian principles ((addition: In Libya and Uganda))). We have been hoping that the current regime would fail from within.
Victor Davis Hanson says that Obama will have real incentive to take action given the dismal state of the economy and his record (many Republicans will approve and Democrats are in disarray). Is that too partisan or simply cool analysis?
What about WMD? Are the costs of military action now worth the potential risks down the road?