Adam Garfinkle-‘Our Storyteller In Chief‘
Garfinkle offers consistently good analysis of conditions on the ground in the Middle-East. Really worth a read.
Also, he offers an hypothesis for the current administration’s approach:
Rhodes is the main one, I believe, who either convinced or strongly reinforced the President’s intuition that the United States is vastly overinvested in the Middle East, that we need to pivot to Asia at the expense of our investments in the Middle East and Europe, that in the absence of traditional American “Cold War-era” leadership benign regional balances will form to keep the peace, and that the world is deep in normative liberalism and well beyond the grubby power politics of earlier eras.
All of this is very trendy and sounds “progressive” and smart, but, of course, it is mostly wrong.
A lot of words and a lot of speechifying. How much of that they actually believe, evidence to the contrary, still is worth asking.
From Political Baba: ‘The Tamasha Of Exit Polls‘
The old Gandhi political dynasty gets trounced at the polls, and a center-right Narendra Modi, with connections to Hindu nationalism which kept Obama’s State Department at bay for a while, will become the next Indian Prime Minister.
Let’s hope he can stay ahead of corruption and lead many sectors of the Indian economy towards sustained growth. I’m hoping he is pragmatic enough to go with what works and also has enough character and political ability to develop broader trust across swathes of Indian society, strengthening institutions for the long haul.
Relations with neighbors, especially elements in Pakistan and Beijing will be worth keeping an eye on.
Exit polls at the link.