Adam Garfinkle at the American Interest: ‘The Anti-Cold War:‘ (comments are worth a read).
The Cold War was very dangerous, no doubt about it. We were all lucky to have gotten through it without a global conflagration. The anti-Cold War may be more dangerous still. So how lucky are you feeling?
There are a lot of ideas in the article, some of which may not be founded in bedrock, but which are quite interesting nonetheless.
My two cents (founded in the clay soil found here in my backyard, as I engage in fever dream):
If I’m Putin, I came up in the KGB, and became proficient in the often ruthless and efficient tactics practiced by the KGB up until and after the Soviet collapse. Intel analysis, deflection, corruption-management and misdirection are second-nature. Diplomacy is usually just a game of submission, especially with the former satellites. There are some very hard men around me, and I’m a hard man, too.
My country is wounded, but still has its pride, and I play it up for political gain and to solidify my position and those most loyal to me, making myself very wealthy and powerful in the process.
I’ve got genuine problems: The Baltics joined NATO, and many in Ukraine are trying to do the same. Chechnya is a mess and terrorizing Moscow from time to time. History is still going, oil-prices are down, and birth-rates don’t look so good.
Two more cents (that makes four) on the progressive/Trump dynamic, and how this might influence foreign policy:
Progressive ideology in America has suddenly lost a lot of influence:
Such ideology is not antithetical to Communism, and usually collectivist, activist, and suspicious of free flows of capital and American business interests coming to the fore in American foreign policy, progressives easily unite against nationalist/conservative/neo-conservative interventionist claims to authority.
One major goal of progressives is to defeat the ‘oppressor,’ and his morally illegitimate claims to rule through use of the American military…sometimes in quite radical fashion.
The greatest leverage can often be had through international institutions, because they are typically the path of least resistance for the ideological/rationalistic goals of Progressivism: A better world is possible if people with shared progressive ideals can gain political power and influence enough to implement goals which claim liberation and radical liberation towards some knowable endpoint.
Progressives often claim the mantle of (S)cience, (P)eace, (R)eason and Enlightenment authority, but given the stuff of human nature, progressive political ideology tends to traffic in:
-Making sacred the ‘-isms’ (environmentalism, racism, sexism etc.and deploying them, when necessary, against all enemies).
-Cultivating shared moral sentiments and solidarity under shared political ideals, and unsurprisingly, often organizing hatred and re-sentiment against any who would oppose progressive goals…identifying such opponents as potentially ‘evil’).
With the election of Trump, a lot of people who share progressive goals have lost a lot of power/influence rather suddenly.
Trump as I see him:
A guy who’s probably harbored political ambitions for a while, and who has spent a majority of his life in the real estate/NYC real estate game. That world seems pretty tough, where knowing the right people, leveraging capital, risk, personal, political and business connections is key. I don’t know if I’d trust doing business with the man (not like I’d ever have the chance).
He’s clearly spent a lot of time on self-promotion and brand management, and seized on the profound populist resentment against D.C. more broadly in speech after speech, especially as it related to immigration. He ran openly against a lot of dominant ‘narratives’ found in the current media landscape (promising to absolve the cloud of racial guilt hanging over many heads), and was openly, refreshingly anti-PC.
A nationalistic, business-minded pragmatist capable of compromise and patience..drastically setting a new course for American interests?
A mildly authoritarian protectionist and absurd showman; a semi-celebrity who really won’t get over his desire for attention and who could really f**k things up?
What to hope for?
What to work towards?
Any thoughts and comments are welcome…as previously posted:
More on the Nemtsov killing: Don’t speak out.
Julia Ioffe at her site: ‘The Bizarre End To Vladimir Putin’s Bizarre Marriage:‘
‘An odd moment in the announcement came when Putin mentioned his confirmed children, two adult daughters whom we’ve never really seen, though there were reports in 2010 that one of them was marrying the son of a South Korean admiral.’
A reader passed along a video of Bill Browder, who made a billion, lost much of it, and got a look at Russian politics, money, and power up close. The way he describes it: Corruption all the way to the top.
What goes around, comes around-An oldie but a goodie-George Kennan: ‘The Sources Of Soviet Conduct‘
60 Minutes had an interview with ‘Jack Barsky,‘ an East-German Soviet spy who ended up living in America. To hell with it!
I wonder if any American operatives went under deep cover to Dschingis Khan concerts to better understand the German soul and its sentimental ties to Moscow:
Here’s Putin, back in the 80’s, meeting Reagan. Ho hum, just a tourist, snapping some photos and meeting, how do you say, your premier.