How Close Is Too Close?-A Link On The 2013 El Reno Tornado

Dan Robinson was the guy heading south, then rapidly east, in the hopes of staying on a parallel northward track to the May 31st, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado. I can appreciate a man driving towards such a thing.

In his words:

‘I was not trying to get close. I knew from how the tornado first appeared that it would be very large, violent and dangerous. My goal was simply to remain in a good position for photography and video, which I felt would be best with the tornado backlit by the bright skies to the southwest. I wanted to be just close enough to have a high-contrast view.

It turns out that particular evening, many of the variables leading to supercell formation, and even EF5 tornado formation, were in place. So many were in place, in fact, that this became one of the most violent and dangerous tornadoes ever recorded.

It changed directions suddenly. It slowed down to 5 mph and sped up to nearly 50 mph. 2.6 miles wide at one point? 300 mph wind?

Eight people died.

The guy in a Toyota Yaris, slipping on a wet, gravely Oklahoma road unable to disable traction control doesn’t exactly come off a hero. The guy suddenly racing for his life, enveloped in the outer wind-field, is easily criticized. Bigger balls than many? Maybe. Stupid enough to get killed? Possibly.

Thanks, Dan, for chasing on your own dime, sharing your information, and respecting the wishes of the families of those in the car behind you. That was the last anyone saw of them.

It is what it is.

The Casual Observer On Tornadoes-A Dark Beauty

Imagine a bathtub draining. All the water molecules feel a downward pull to the center of Earth’s mass. The tub floor is tapered slightly, causing the water molecules to flow in one direction. There are about a dozen holes in the drain cover, where the downward pull is exponentially greater.

All the molecules in the tub gather here, eventually passing the cover. The convenient shape to balance these known forces is a vortex.

Zip, off you go.

Out on the Great Plains, East of the Rockies, hundreds of miles of cooler drier moves down from the North.

Warm, moist air rolls up from the South and East, mostly from the Gulf of Mexico.

These differing air masses have different densities, temperatures, and directions of motion. Warm air holds more moisture, and rises. Cool air is harder to lift. Breezes kick up. Clouds heap on the horizon.

Huge complexes called supercells form. These cloud-machines can rise up to 50,000 feet, seeming to collect all the smaller storms around. They have a center called a mesocyclone which rotates. They have a gust front ahead, and downdrafts behind.

On the gust front, perhaps something like our water in the bathtub, rising air is being fed into the supercell quickly enough; the air molecules forced upward intensely enough, that vortices form (the pressure releasing against gravity).

A lot of the power of this cloud machine becomes concentrated. Cyclonic ropes and columns spin down from cooler parts of the storm. These anti-cyclonic (our hemisphere) ropes and columns of rising air stack up in one area.

Zip…off you go.

If you’re anywhere near a tornado you’d hear a guttural roar of wind. It’s described as a loud, terrifying sound you haven’t quite heard before.

Your ears would pop. You’d be pelted with rain or hail, then pierced with dirt, mud, rocks, splinters of wood and bits of tree bark. Aluminum siding might fly by, or structural materials and other larger objects might slam into you. If you found yourself inside, you’d be desperately gathering your loved ones in the safest place possible.

You’d be hoping whoever built this building built it well.

You’d be hoping wherever this tornado moves, it’s away from here.

This monster just passed through Greenfield, Iowa. The people there could use some help. Sometimes help is for the right reasons, and pretty easy.

Some Links To The Rolling Fork, MS Tornado-Life & Death

R.I.P.

Some tragedies happen because of a lack of knowledge, and a lack of knowledge distribution when it is matters most.

There were people sitting in homes and businesses in Rolling Fork MS, who knew it was storming, and knew they should probably keep an eye on the weather, and knew how to stay safe in most situations.

But they didn’t know there was an EF-4 or EF-5 monster bearing-down. They didn’t know they might have had minutes to live. These wind-speeds can sweep walls from foundations.

If these poor folks even knew what the storm-chaser driving-by knew, when he knew it, this could have made the difference.

It’s terrifying to think there could have been someone in that vehicle, hovering a few hundred feet in the air, being swept around this beast.

Accurate prediction[s] save lives.

Some of the experience of storm-chasers, and collected knowledge from that experience, already exists but needs to be channeled through complex and more predictive modeling to establish the science within these monsters.

This is where the new frontiers should be pushed.

How Close Is Too Close?-A Few Links On The 2013 El Reno Tornado

Dan Robinson was the guy heading south, then rapidly east, in the hopes of staying on a parallel northward track to the May 31st, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado. I can appreciate a man driving towards such a thing.

In his words:

‘I was not trying to get close. I knew from how the tornado first appeared that it would be very large, violent and dangerous. My goal was simply to remain in a good position for photography and video, which I felt would be best with the tornado backlit by the bright skies to the southwest. I wanted to be just close enough to have a high-contrast view.

It turns out that particular evening, many of the variables leading to supercell formation, and even EF5 tornado formation, were in place. So many were in place, in fact, that this became one of the most violent and dangerous tornadoes ever recorded.

It changed directions suddenly. It slowed down to 5 mph and sped up to nearly 50 mph. 2.6 miles wide at one point? 300 mph wind?

Eight people died.

The guy in a Toyota Yaris, slipping on a wet, gravely Oklahoma road unable to disable traction control doesn’t exactly come off a hero. The guy suddenly racing for his life, enveloped in the outer wind-field, is easily criticized. Bigger balls than many? Maybe. Stupid enough to get killed? Possibly.

Thanks, Dan, for chasing on your own dime, sharing your information, and respecting the wishes of the families of those in the car behind you. That was the last anyone saw of them.

It is what it is.

From the Weather Service video below: A small percentage of the world’s surface supports the kinds of extreme clashing air masses found on the U.S. plains.  Very few thunderstorms become supercells, and very few of those supercells form tornadoes.  Even fewer tornadoes become violent F4 and F5 monsters which spawn sub-vortices and anti-cyclones.

The El Reno, Oklahoma tornado from 2013 took the lives of eight people, including experienced stormchasers known for their judgment and contributions to the rest of us.

A sad day.

From Climate Audit: Baby Whirls-Improved Detection Of Marginal Tropical Storms

Full post here.

“With the North Atlantic hurricane season officially starting in a couple weeks (June 1), but possibly getting a head start with a developing low-pressure system in the Bahamas, considerable attention will be paid by the media to each and every storm that gets a name.”

Like swine flu scaremongering, it’s perhaps for the best.

As for the global warming science, it’s complicated.  I’m a generalist and would like to work against the tide of those who insist action must not only be taken by individuals to reduce their contribution to the excess carbon in earth’s atmosphere, but by governments, mostly through regulation of economic activity.  Those are two different issues.

Related On This Site:  Hurricanes By Popular Demand

Andrew Revkin In The NY Times: Global Warming Moderation From Bloggingheads: On Freeman Dyson’s Global Warming Heresy…From The WSJ-A Heated Exchange: Al Gore Confronts His Critics…From The Literary Review–Weather Channel Green Ideology: Founder John Coleman Upset.

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