How Close Is Too Close?-A Link On The 2013 El Reno Tornado

Dan Robinson was the guy heading south, then rapidly east, in the hopes of staying on a parallel northward track to the May 31st, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado. I can appreciate a man driving towards such a thing.

In his words:

‘I was not trying to get close. I knew from how the tornado first appeared that it would be very large, violent and dangerous. My goal was simply to remain in a good position for photography and video, which I felt would be best with the tornado backlit by the bright skies to the southwest. I wanted to be just close enough to have a high-contrast view.

It turns out that particular evening, many of the variables leading to supercell formation, and even EF5 tornado formation, were in place. So many were in place, in fact, that this became one of the most violent and dangerous tornadoes ever recorded.

It changed directions suddenly. It slowed down to 5 mph and sped up to nearly 50 mph. 2.6 miles wide at one point? 300 mph wind?

Eight people died.

The guy in a Toyota Yaris, slipping on a wet, gravely Oklahoma road unable to disable traction control doesn’t exactly come off a hero. The guy suddenly racing for his life, enveloped in the outer wind-field, is easily criticized. Bigger balls than many? Maybe. Stupid enough to get killed? Possibly.

Thanks, Dan, for chasing on your own dime, sharing your information, and respecting the wishes of the families of those in the car behind you. That was the last anyone saw of them.

It is what it is.

The Casual Observer On Tornadoes-A Dark Beauty

Imagine a bathtub draining. All the water molecules feel a downward pull to the center of Earth’s mass. The tub floor is tapered slightly, causing the water molecules to flow in one direction. There are about a dozen holes in the drain cover, where the downward pull is exponentially greater.

All the molecules in the tub gather here, eventually passing the cover. The convenient shape to balance these known forces is a vortex.

Zip, off you go.

Out on the Great Plains, East of the Rockies, hundreds of miles of cooler drier moves down from the North.

Warm, moist air rolls up from the South and East, mostly from the Gulf of Mexico.

These differing air masses have different densities, temperatures, and directions of motion. Warm air holds more moisture, and rises. Cool air is harder to lift. Breezes kick up. Clouds heap on the horizon.

Huge complexes called supercells form. These cloud-machines can rise up to 50,000 feet, seeming to collect all the smaller storms around. They have a center called a mesocyclone which rotates. They have a gust front ahead, and downdrafts behind.

On the gust front, perhaps something like our water in the bathtub, rising air is being fed into the supercell quickly enough; the air molecules forced upward intensely enough, that vortices form (the pressure releasing against gravity).

A lot of the power of this cloud machine becomes concentrated. Cyclonic ropes and columns spin down from cooler parts of the storm. These anti-cyclonic (our hemisphere) ropes and columns of rising air stack up in one area.

Zip…off you go.

If you’re anywhere near a tornado you’d hear a guttural roar of wind. It’s described as a loud, terrifying sound you haven’t quite heard before.

Your ears would pop. You’d be pelted with rain or hail, then pierced with dirt, mud, rocks, splinters of wood and bits of tree bark. Aluminum siding might fly by, or structural materials and other larger objects might slam into you. If you found yourself inside, you’d be desperately gathering your loved ones in the safest place possible.

You’d be hoping whoever built this building built it well.

You’d be hoping wherever this tornado moves, it’s away from here.

This monster just passed through Greenfield, Iowa. The people there could use some help. Sometimes help is for the right reasons, and pretty easy.

Some Links To The Rolling Fork, MS Tornado-Life & Death

R.I.P.

Some tragedies happen because of a lack of knowledge, and a lack of knowledge distribution when it is matters most.

There were people sitting in homes and businesses in Rolling Fork MS, who knew it was storming, and knew they should probably keep an eye on the weather, and knew how to stay safe in most situations.

But they didn’t know there was an EF-4 or EF-5 monster bearing-down. They didn’t know they might have had minutes to live. These wind-speeds can sweep walls from foundations.

If these poor folks even knew what the storm-chaser driving-by knew, when he knew it, this could have made the difference.

It’s terrifying to think there could have been someone in that vehicle, hovering a few hundred feet in the air, being swept around this beast.

Accurate prediction[s] save lives.

Some of the experience of storm-chasers, and collected knowledge from that experience, already exists but needs to be channeled through complex and more predictive modeling to establish the science within these monsters.

This is where the new frontiers should be pushed.

Seattle Photo-1924

Seattle climate: Pacific Marine. Around late September to early October, the switch flips and the High pressure ridge no longer holds. The sunny, temperate summer (July 4th–September 20th) is gone, Jack. A few bigger storms move in (more wind and relatively more rain). In come the clouds, and the drizzle, and because we’re at 48 degrees north latitude, the darkness.

As for snow, there’s plenty of moisture around, but getting the moisture AND the cold air together is tough. The cold air dams behind the Cascades and up high and in Eastern Washington. Sometimes it drains through the Fraser River valley and spills over Seattle. You might not get any snow for a winter or two, or you might get 1-2 weeks of below freezing temps, and 2-24 inches of snow on the ground before it melts with the next rain. Lots of variability.

Dress in layers with moisture protection. The difference between the rare sun on your skin and walking through a damp, chill fog could be 15-20 degrees. Expect low light, and sunrise as you go to work and sunset before you leave.

Join a club…and get some good exercise. Wait for late April or May to start seeing real sunny days again.

How Close Is Too Close?-A Few Links On The 2013 El Reno Tornado

Dan Robinson was the guy heading south, then rapidly east, in the hopes of staying on a parallel northward track to the May 31st, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado. I can appreciate a man driving towards such a thing.

In his words:

‘I was not trying to get close. I knew from how the tornado first appeared that it would be very large, violent and dangerous. My goal was simply to remain in a good position for photography and video, which I felt would be best with the tornado backlit by the bright skies to the southwest. I wanted to be just close enough to have a high-contrast view.

It turns out that particular evening, many of the variables leading to supercell formation, and even EF5 tornado formation, were in place. So many were in place, in fact, that this became one of the most violent and dangerous tornadoes ever recorded.

It changed directions suddenly. It slowed down to 5 mph and sped up to nearly 50 mph. 2.6 miles wide at one point? 300 mph wind?

Eight people died.

The guy in a Toyota Yaris, slipping on a wet, gravely Oklahoma road unable to disable traction control doesn’t exactly come off a hero. The guy suddenly racing for his life, enveloped in the outer wind-field, is easily criticized. Bigger balls than many? Maybe. Stupid enough to get killed? Possibly.

Thanks, Dan, for chasing on your own dime, sharing your information, and respecting the wishes of the families of those in the car behind you. That was the last anyone saw of them.

It is what it is.

From the Weather Service video below: A small percentage of the world’s surface supports the kinds of extreme clashing air masses found on the U.S. plains.  Very few thunderstorms become supercells, and very few of those supercells form tornadoes.  Even fewer tornadoes become violent F4 and F5 monsters which spawn sub-vortices and anti-cyclones.

The El Reno, Oklahoma tornado from 2013 took the lives of eight people, including experienced stormchasers known for their judgment and contributions to the rest of us.

A sad day.

‘Grabby’ Aliens, A Beautiful Funnel Of Air & A Few Past Links

I tend to be skeptical of guys who, upon their deaths, freeze their heads into perpetuity. Probabilistically, though, I suppose it could be a bet worth taking.

We could use more outside-the-box thinkers with real-world experience making bets on where to fruitfully think.

Our institutions have more rot than usual, and dangerous capture. There are too many prizes, too many piles of old money, and not enough brains and courage.

I’m of a mind to say Nature is beyond value judgment (I judge things all the time, but Nature doesn’t seem to care). The people I love and who love me, do care about me (as long as we’re here).

God? Maybe. The universe: Unclear. The little I know of the laws of the universe suggest more of the same Nature I’ve known here on Earth.

Beauty plays a key part in understanding the world. It can both anchor us into our own bodies and experiences, while keeping us searching for new experiences. Truth has a clear empirical element in my thinking, and refers to a world I believe genuinely exists. Collecting data about the world is a lot like actually referring back to the book you’re quoting, or asking the other person what they’re really thinking…then listening.

Beautiful and dangerous. Maybe the tornado is telling you something? Maybe not.

Roger Scruton At The WSJ: โ€˜Memo To Hawking: Thereโ€™s Still Room For Godโ€™

Related On This Site: From Darwinian Conservatism: โ€˜The Evolution of Mind and Mathematics: Dehaene Versus Plantinga and Nagelโ€™

Sunday Quotation: Edmund Burke On The French Revolution

Denis Dutton suggested art could head towards Darwin (and may offer new direction from the troubles of the modern art aimlessness and shallow depthโ€ฆthe money and the fame) Review of Denis Duttonโ€™s โ€˜The Art Instinctโ€™โ€ฆ

Roger Sandall, Australian critic of romantic primitivism and the Westernโ€™s Leftโ€™s penchant for the Noble Savage: His home page where his essays can be found. Hereโ€™s โ€œThe Rise Of The Anthropologuesโ€œ andโ€ฆ

Via Youtube: ‘Massive Boulder, CO Flood, Sep 12th, 2013’

—————–

Thanks to a reader for the link.

Video taken by a local resident and Bad Astronomy blogger familiar with the area. ย Remember, floods kill more people than any other natural disaster. ย The energy the water carries is deceptively powerful. ย  Safe places can become very unsafe, very quickly. ย Once you’re swept away, that’s usually the end of you.

This is probably a 50 or 100 year flood, with some areas in the foothills receiving as much as 8 inches of rain in a few hours. ย  The area’s also had fires recently, causing less soil absorption so all that water flows down and picks up an especially nasty mix at the front end. ย Thoughts and prayers to the families of those lost and/or missing.

National Weather Service statement here.

In the mountains, it doesn’t always have to rain where you are for flash flooding to occur. ย Avoid low places and arroyos. ย Know your terrain and stay aware of the weather. ย Fascinating video of rainwater and debris flow making its way into washes in southern Utah. ย Don’t try this at home:

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If you’re into this stuff, check out The Landslide Blog. ย Great and current videos from around the world of erosion, earth movement, flash flooding, debris flows in different materials, geology, etc. ย You can get sucked in and carried away (ha-ha)

Here’s a video from JPL discussing features on Mars that indicate drainage, liquid flow and similar features here on Earth. Evidence of an ancient liquid past and a current dry environment is one mystery the Curiosity Rover is trying to solve by going to Mt. Sharp. ย Go Rover!

Red Cross information here.

R.I.P. StormChasers-Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras & Carl Young

NBC video here.

National Geographic had what would be a final interview with Tim Samaras.

Some final tweets. ย Weatherspace has more here, with information about the El Reno tornado.

Addition: The El Reno tornado was a record 2 1/2 miles wide. ย Video here. ย It’s easy to see when a few miles wide tornado spins off multiple vortices, hits in the evening, and is rain-wrapped, that even veteran chasers can underestimate it. ย  ย It’s like the supercell is dragging its belly on the ground.

———————–

As a blogger and writer and weather-interested layman:

I suspect everyone’s been moved by the beauty of nature, and felt wonder, fear, and awe at its power and mystery. Some people keep going back and try to figure out how it works as well. There’s an element of thrill-seeking to the hunt, and adrenalin, no doubt. It’s extremelyย risky chasing down tornadoes time and again, putting yourself so dangerously close, but the goal is to know more, and to stay as safe as possible under the circumstances.

There’s been a lot of data gathered and science done that has drastically improved forecasting, preparation and warning time, and our understanding of tornadoes. That’s no doubt saved many lives. Storm-chasers also bear witness to the death and destruction in the wake of tornadoes, so to everyone who’s suffered, my condolences.

It might be helpful to the Samaras family to visit his site as he has a DVD for sale.

Here’s Tim Samaras discussing his work in 2004. R.I.P.

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And Tim Samaras at work:

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Related On This Site:ย ย The Greensburg Tornado on Dopplerย Radarโ€ฆTornadoes In Major Cities:ย Atlanta

From The Weather Channel: 3D Image Of The Tuscaloosa Tornado April 27th,ย 2011โ€ฆTornadoes! Someย Linksโ€ฆThe Greensburg Tornado on Doppler Radarโ€ฆTornadoes In Major Cities:ย Atlantaโ€ฆFrom NOAA: Tornado Safetyย Guideโ€ฆFrom CBS St. Louis: โ€˜UPDATED: Video of the Joplinย Twisterโ€™

From Weather Underground: Moore/Oklahoma City Tornado May 20th,ย 2013

From Weather Underground: Moore/Oklahoma City Tornado May 20th, 2013

Update here.

A revised 24 deaths.ย Video taken by local man and posted on Facebook. ย Before and after photo.

Uncut video.

WMCTV in Memphis has video footage of the tornado from a helicopter.

Stu Ostro has a high-res color image of the storms.

KFOR TV in Oklahoma City livestream here. ย CNN has good coverage. ย If you want to help, the local chapter of the American Red Cross here. ย Shelters open. More on tornado safetyย here.

Thoughts and prayers to the victims and their families.

A mile wide, EF5, the track here, moved just south of Oklahoma City, through Moore, devastating some neighborhoods.

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The scope of the damage, or debris zone, is three times greater than the May 3rd, 1999 tornado. ย Here’s a video of that tornado.

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Related On This Site:ย ย The Greensburg Tornado on Dopplerย Radarโ€ฆTornadoes In Major Cities:ย Atlanta

From The Weather Channel: 3D Image Of The Tuscaloosa Tornado April 27th,ย 2011โ€ฆTornadoes! Someย Linksโ€ฆThe Greensburg Tornado on Doppler Radarโ€ฆTornadoes In Major Cities:ย Atlantaโ€ฆFrom NOAA: Tornado Safetyย Guideโ€ฆFrom CBS St. Louis: โ€˜UPDATED: Video of the Joplinย Twisterโ€™

Via Youtube: March 2nd, 2012 Henryville, Indiana tornado

A view of the tornado from the south. More with Greg Forbes, at the Weather Channel. More from Jeff Masters at Weather Underground on the outbreak. Via the IndyStar, some more video and eyewitness reports. ย Via the Tucson Citizen:

‘In Henryville, an EF-4 tornado โ€” the second-highest on the Fujita scale that measures tornadic force โ€” brought 175-mph winds and stayed on the ground for more than 50 miles’

As always, thoughts and prayers with those lost, their families and loved ones, and the communities affected.

Addition: ย Link sent in by a reader. ย Surveillance camera footage from the Henryville Junior/Senior High School.

Related On This Site:ย ย ย From The Weather Channel: 3D Image Of The Tuscaloosa Tornado April 27th,ย 2011โ€ฆTornadoes! Someย Linksโ€ฆThe Greensburg Tornado on Doppler Radarโ€ฆTornadoes In Major Cities:ย AtlantaFrom NOAA: Tornado Safetyย GuideFrom CBS St. Louis: โ€˜UPDATED: Video of the Joplinย Twisterโ€™

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From CBS St. Louis: ‘UPDATED: Video of the Joplin Twister’

Full post here.

A gathering of videos at the link above. ย The deadliest tornado in Missouri history, and one of the 10 deadliest single tornadoes in U.S. history.

Via the Christian Post:

Joplin, Mo., officials have updated the death toll from Sunday’s tornado to 142′

A confirmed EF5 moved across southern Joplin on Sunday night May 22nd, 2011, causing heavy damage and loss of life. ย Thoughts and prayers go out to the survivors. ย The Weather Channel has more.

Doppler Radar here. Helicopter video survey of the tornado’s path. ย Joplin crowdmap site (online bulletin board for recovery efforts). ย Some videoย of the tornado’s formation and passing through Joplin, and damage afterwards.

Addition: ย The Weather Channel has an update on today’s tornado threat, listing key ingredients to tornadic supercell thunderstorm formation.

Another Addition: ย The Daily Mail has before and after satellite images.

Related On This Site:ย ย ย From The Weather Channel: 3D Image Of The Tuscaloosa Tornado April 27th,ย 2011Tornadoes! Someย Linksโ€ฆThe Greensburg Tornado on Doppler Radarโ€ฆTornadoes In Major Cities:ย Atlanta

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From The Weather Channel: 3D Image Of The Tuscaloosa Tornado April 27th, 2011

Image here.

The deadliest outbreak since 1974ย has ocurred (updated: ย since 1925). ย There are some 264 dead in Alabama alone (340 total as of now).ย ย Some aerial photos from MSNBC of the Tuscaloosa tornado’s path, as the damage is consistent with an EF4-EF5. Another youtube video here. ย CNN has a doppler radar image of the debris in the funnel, some debris traveling perhaps as high as 7,000 to 8,000 feet. ย The WaPo has more here, with a map indicating each reported tornado in the outbreak.

Some FAQ’s from NOAA. ย A link for donations. ย Thoughts and prayers go out to the survivors, and those who’ve lost friends, family members, and loved ones. ย I’m sorry for your loss.

Addition:ย ย More youtube video here. ย Aerials in a helicopter along the path. ย Video on the ground of 15th Street in Tuscaloosa just afterwards.

Related On This Site: ย Tornadoes! Someย LinksThe Greensburg Tornado on Doppler Radarโ€ฆTornadoes In Major Cities:ย Atlanta

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Via NPR: In Vivian, South Dakota-The Largest Hailstone Ever Recorded?

Full audio here.

The previous record was 7 in in diameter, and fell to the ground in Aurora, Nebraska in 2003. ย This is not quite official yet, but is measuring 8 in in diameter and weighing in at 1 lb 15 oz, and was perhaps as large as 11 in before it melted to measured size.

Here’s a graphic on hail formation, and someย more information here. ย It takes a tremendous amount of lift to keep stones that big aloft.

Also On This Site: ย Hurricanes By Popularย DemandTornadoes! Someย LinksThe Greensburg Tornado on Doppler Radar

A Short Post On Red Sprites And Blue Jets: Cosmic Origins Ofย Lightning?

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From Climate Audit: Baby Whirls-Improved Detection Of Marginal Tropical Storms

Full post here.

“With the North Atlantic hurricane season officially starting in a couple weeks (June 1), but possibly getting a head start with a developing low-pressure system in the Bahamas, considerable attention will be paid by the media to each and every storm that gets a name.”

Like swine flu scaremongering, it’s perhaps for the best.

As for the global warming science, it’s complicated. ย I’m a generalist and would like to work against the tide of those who insist action must not only be taken by individuals to reduce their contribution to the excess carbon in earth’s atmosphere, but by governments, mostly through regulation of economic activity. ย Those are two different issues.

Related On This Site: ย Hurricanes By Popularย Demand

Andrew Revkin In The NY Times: Global Warmingย Moderationย From Bloggingheads: On Freeman Dysonโ€™s Global Warmingย Heresy…From The WSJ-A Heated Exchange: Al Gore Confronts Hisย Critics…From The Literary Reviewโ€“Weather Channel Green Ideology: Founder John Colemanย Upset.

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Tornadoes! Some Links

With so many deadly tornadoes in the news lately, I thought I’d post a few links:

Here’s a link to the How Stuff Works tornado page.

The Tornado Project Online. (Affiliated with How Stuff Works, lots of top-ten lists etc…)

-How to make a tornado box for a science fair.

-Is it a vortex of rising, warm and moist air or cool air dropping downward?ย ย  Good models here. ย A horizontal column of rotating air that gets lifted with the rising air in the formation of a storm?

-The Red Cross Tornado Preparedness Page.

-You’ve got to check out Tornadovideos.net.

A swedish guy has a small tornado drop down in front of his car (1:15 or so, cool video)A dust-devil here.ย  If you have time and are aย real weather geek, the formation of a supercell here.

See Also: The Greensburg Tornado on Doppler Radar


by Extreme WX Photographer

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